IFPRI EVENT: Distributional Effects of WTO Agricultural Reforms in Rich and Poor

Thomas W. Hertel, Purdue University
Thursday, 2 November, 2006. 3:30 - 5:00 p.m.
The presentation is based on a paper by Thomas W. Hertel and Roman
Keeney of Purdue University, and Maros Ivanic and L. Alan Winters, The
World Bank, for the 44th Panel Meeting of Economic Policy in Helsinki,
Finland, October 2006.

Paper Abstract
Rich countries' agricultural trade policies are the battleground on
which the future of the World Trade Organization's troubled Doha Round
will be determined. Subject to widespread criticism, they nonetheless
appear to be almost immune to serious reform, largely because of the
widespread belief that they protect poor farmers. Our findings counter
this view. Using detailed data on farm incomes, they show that only
large, wealthy farmers in a few heavily protected subsectors would be
seriously affected by trade reform. By contrast, reforming rich
countries' agricultural trade policies would lift large numbers of
developing country farm households out of poverty, according to an
analysis using household data from 15 developing countries. In most
cases, these gains are not outweighed by the poverty-increasing effects
of higher food prices among other households. The analysis conducted
here indicates that maximal trade-led poverty reductions occur when
developing countries participate more fully in agricultural trade
liberalization.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thomas W. Hertel is a Distinguished Professor at Purdue University,
where he teaches and conducts research on the economy-wide impacts of
trade policies. He is the founder and Executive Director of the Global
Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) which encompasses 5,000 researchers in
over 100 countries around the world.

IFPRI is pleased to invite you to the following Policy Seminar, which
will be held in our fourth floor conference facility located at 2033 K
Street, NW (entrance on 21st Street, between K and L Streets). Please
RSVP to Simone Hill Lee (s.hill-lee@cgiar.org; Tel: 202.862.8107).